Posts Tagged ‘simulation’

Modeling the behavior of large groups of individuals

December 16, 2008

Bruce Edmonds has reviewed Philip Ball’s popular science book Critical Mass. As before (in the discussion with Dignum and Liz Sonenberg on the use of logic in agent-based social simulation), he is insightful and skeptical. He quotes Ball’s book:

The skill lies in knowing where a mechanistic, quantitative model is appropriate for describing human behaviour, and where it is likely to produce nothing but a grotesque caricature.

Edmonds lists the following lessons that the social sciences can learn from physics:

  • The effort that is put into getting data and information about processes, for example, by developing new methods of measurement and new experimental techniques.
  • The relative importance that is given to artefacts ‘lower down’ the chain of abstraction, thus evidence over models; and concrete models over frameworks and paradigms.
  • The relative willingness to develop new modelling techniques when existing ones turn out to be inadequate.
  • The acceptance of evidence as the ‘court of last resort’ for choosing between competing theories.

Agent-based simulation as a method

September 12, 2008

And to complete today’s triplet of posts: the introduction of Epstein’s 2006 Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling is available online. Useful. The book is interestingy reviewed by Rosaria Conte.

Simulation vs game theory (in the context of norms)

September 12, 2008

A further Ken Binmore quote (taken from his review of Axelrod’s 1997 book; see the previous post):

What is the point of running a complicated simulation to find some of the equilibria of a game when they can often be easily computed directly? But this is a routine mistake among social scientists who use simulation techniques. Often the simulators are unaware even that they are studying a game, or that their simulations cannot but converge on an equilibrium of this game, if they converge at all. Sometimes a theorist can see immediately that a simulation must be wrong because it is said to have converged to something that is not an equilibrium of the underlying game, but I have never known a simulator feel any need to rethink his results after learning this fact.

On Axelrod’s Norms Game (aka the Ultimatum Game in game theory/psychology):

the simulation data on which Axelrod supposedly bases his conclusions about the evolution of norms is woefully inadequate, even if one thought that his Norms Game were a good representation of the Game of Life in which real norms actually evolve.

And:

the evidence from computer simulations that he offers in support of his ideas has only rhetorical value.

Note also what Binmore says about “folk theorems” in game theory. For Binmore, Axelrod’s contribution has nothing to do with the specific strategy Tit-for-tat, but with his evolutionary approach showing how a strategy can get selected.

On slogans, truth and usefulness (and solutions in search of a problem)

September 12, 2008

Ken Binmore reviews Axelrod’s 1997 book The Complexity of Cooperation (the followup of his Evolution of Cooperation). He is surprisingly harsh and speaks of the ‘tit-for-tat bubble’, the persistence of which ‘is a mystery to game theorists. Why do science writers continue to use TIT-FOR-TAT as the paradigm for human co-operation?’

Slogans are easy, but often false, or non-distinguishing (e.g., when the slogan and its opposite are both true); on the other hand: truths may be too complex to be useful for guiding our behavior …

There is a similarly critical 1999 reappraisal of multi-agent systems research by Nwana and Ndumu. A central message is this:

A new field is only defined by its problems, not its methods/techniques. We argue strongly that MAS has to some degree been falling into the trap that has befell AI – that of deluding itself that its methods and techniques (e.g. cooperation, rationality theories, agent languages, conceptual and theoretical foundations, multi-agent planning, negotiation) are the real important issues. No! They are not! It is the problems that they are meant to solve as in air-traffic control or electronic commerce that are foremost important.

They quote Donald Schon, who wrote in 1983 that

there is a high, hard ground where practitioners can make effective use of research-based theory and technique, and there is a swampy lowland where situations are confusing “messes” incapable of technical solution. The difficulty is that the problems of the high ground, however great their technical interest, are often relatively unimportant to clients or to the larger society, while in the swamp are the problems of greatest human concern. Shall the practitioner stay on the high, hard ground where he can practice rigorously, as he understands rigor, but where he is constrained to deal with problems of relatively little social importance? Or shall he descend to the swamp where he can engage the most important and challenging problems if he is willing to forsake technical rigor?

Interestingly Binmore and Nwana/Ndumu are both critical about some received wisdom, but from very different perspectives. Binmore focuses on theoretical truth (where Schon’s rigor lives), Nwana/Ndumu on practical problem solving (Schon’s swamp).

One more quote from Nwana/Ndumu about MAS & real problems:

Too many academic MAS researchers with a few notable exceptions do not really “own” (and hence do not appreciate) real MAS problems. Solution merchants looking for problems, drawn in by the hype of the domain? Furthermore, from the viewpoint of practitioners, some of the issues addressed by academics are rather pedestrian, again because of a failure of understanding and/or facing up to the real problems required of multi-agent system designers. We have in mind issues such as agent rationality arguments, logics, formalisation of belief, desire and intentions, etc. – for their own sake – which buys us nothing, and looks dangerously half-baked, hollow and impractical, particularly in the absence of a real problem. We say this with some trepidation because academic researchers require the freedom to do research for its own sake – and they should not be shackled by real world concerns. However, our point here is a rather very important one of premature formalisation. Stuart Russell argues in his 1997 AI journal article against what he calls “premature mathematization” in AI. He writes: “There is always a danger, …, that … can lead to “premature mathemization”, a condition characterised by increasing technical results that have increasingly little to do with the original problem” (Russell, 1997).

Q-learning

June 4, 2008

I came across a tutorial on Q-learning (a variant of reinforcement learning), that nicely showed that communication does not need a perfectly specified language. And here is a nice Java-demo of Q-learning.

Geografische agenten

April 15, 2008

Met Wilbert Grevers (dissertatie: Land markets and public policy – An act of balance in spatial equilibrium) sprak ik over agentsimulatie (ruwweg: discrete modellering) en differentiaalvergelijkingen (ruwweg: continue modellering). Zie Fig. 6.1 (blz. 156 van zijn dissertatie) en Figs. 6.2/3 (blz. 159). Hij attendeerde me op het onderwerp/vakgebied Nieuwe Economische Geografie. Zie de inleiding bij het boek The spatial economy van onder andere Paul Krugman. Idee: Voor het (economische) bestaansrecht van steden moet er uitgegaan worden van increasing returns in concentraties; anders zouden we in het echt, bij benadering, veel meer “backyard capitalism” zien.

Ook kwam Marco Janssen (die samenwerkt/heeft gewerkt met Elinor Ostrom) ter sprake in het kader van normen & agentsimulatie.

Over coherentie en Monokai

August 15, 2007

Monokaialter ego van Wimer Hazenberg. Getalenteerd webvormgever. Speel in zijn lab en luister naar zijn muziek. En dan is er nog zijn afstudeeronderzoek.

Varkenscyclus

July 5, 2006

BdB en ik spraken over coëvolutionaire soortvorming. Het woord varkenscyclus viel. Dit verwijst wel naar de hog cycle en het bijbehorende cob web model en niet naar bear and bull markets.

Pidgin, creole, simulation

May 9, 2006

- Wikipedia: pidgin, creole, syntactic similarities between creoles

- Google pidgin creole simulation:

Social simulation

May 8, 2006

SEP over emergente eigenschappen, Wikipedia over emergentie, artificial societies, computer simulation, simulation, computational sociology


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